Thoughts on the Canadian Federal Election

Yesterday Canadians voted in a federal election. Of the house of Commons' 308 seats, the breakdown was as follows; Conservatives 143, Liberals 76, NDP 37, Bloc Quebecois 50 and New Democrats 37. Early in the election it looked like the Conservatives had a chance at a majority government. However, as the compaign progressed, Conservative support fell apart in Quebec and although the Conservatives picked up quite a few seats in Ontario and added 16 altogether nationwide, the majority proved unattainable. This is disappointing to Conservative supporters, but I think there is a lot to take hope in for those who support the small "c" conservative movement in Canada.

First, consider Quebec. The Conservatives held on to their 10 seats neither gaining or losing seats. The significance here, in my mind, is that votes in Quebec were not decided on Canadian Unity issues. Remember, the Conservative Party's predecessors the Reform and Alliance Parties were anathema to French Quebec. In this election no one was saying, a vote for the Conservatives is a vote to break up the country. Since the last election, the Conservatives have recognized Quebec as a nation within a united Canada and have limited the role of the federal government, and largely resolved the issue of transfer payments to the provinces. The Conservatives problems in Queber related to youth criminal justice and Harper being characterized as cutting funding to arts. I think between now and the next election, the Conservatives will be able to learn from this. I think they primarily need better advice about Quebec and more on the ground campaign support. What I think they also need is a strong French Canadian Conservative spokesperson campaigning alongside Harper. Anyway, my point is that no one can say that support for Conservatives is unattainable in Quebec.

The reason this is so important, is because Ontario is protective of Quebec and tends to vote for parties that have strong credentials as a national party capable of adequately governing in Quebec's interests. Any rhetoric that Liberals have used in the past arguing that the Conservatives would break the country apart is now completely discredited. Now Ontarians are free to vote according to their own preferences. Now Ontarians who are small c conservative are free to vote Conservative.

This election will have difficult repercussions for the Liberal Party. That party is deeply in debt and has a leader who will likely be the last one to see that he needs to step aside for new leadership. The party is very divided in terms of policy and though Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff both have strengths that might win them the leadership, it seems the opposition to each of these men within the party is as strong as each of their support. In time, the Liberal party may remake itself and be strengthened, but for now, it is facing at least a couple of years of intense struggle and many years of debt.

Meanwhile, the Conservative party is well-funded and the conservative movement in Canada is growing. There are now conservative think tanks, the senate will gradually become more Conservative and gradually there will be more balance in the civil service. Also, if Canadians live with the benefits of Conservative government and conservative principles, gradually more Canadians will see the benefits of this way of thinking. The Conservatives are plank by plank building a strong conservative movement. In turn the Conservative Party is moving toward the Centre in the Canadian political spectrum where its support can be more broad than within the Reform Party. I hope that in this process of maturation, there will be more leaders emerge who can be trusted to speak to the media without expressing views that represent more than just the right wing branch of the party. I thoroughly support Stephen Harper's leadership, but I think it is now time to build the team up to a greater degree.

So there are my thoughts on the election results. I hope there will be a greater spirit of cooperation in this parliament. Canadians would like to keep their government for about 3 years this time. And, Canadians need to get used to minority governments. I believe they are the way this country will be for a long time.